The year of 2021 has seen unprecedented heat waves in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane Ida left millions without power in Louisiana hit the Northeast with record flooding. Wildfires in the west continue to burn out of control over larger and larger areas than ever before. Droughts in the West are leaving multiple watersheds dry as critical water revivors like lake Powell suffer record low levels. California farmers are draining the water table as the entire central valley sinks further. Cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas are struggling to limit water usage. Meanwhile the infrastructure of the United States sinks into further disrepair; Potholes fill the roads, dams crack, bridges fail and pipes rust and corrode away.
Globally the United States is heading the way of any other overextended hopelessly corrupt empire in History, to Collapse. During the 1980โs lean manufacturing and other principles developed by Toyota lead a revolution in cost savings via JIT(Just in time) inventory management. This allowed huge savings because companies didnโt need to store extra parts and inventory in warehouses. However, now the fragility of these systems have become exposed due to economic chaos via the pandemic and trade wars. Any of these issues deserves a post of its own, however, Iโll make my point now. The industrial world is on a collapse trajectory, and has been for many decades. We are now seeing the further stairstep downward of crises. Let me make clear, Collapse is a fractal process that happens at the speed of rust, not a two hour doomsday porn Hollywood movie. Every personal collapse in someoneโs life, in a company, in a city is a real thing, the sum of all the little collapses is a large collapse. The current industrial arrangement of the western world is unsustainable, collapsing and it is far too late to prevent it. I am not writing any of this this to argue that point, nor am I looking to argue about whether climate change is real, When peak oil happened, whether progress is dead or or any other early 2000โs type debate. Many other writers have made these arguments in great detail. Please do check out the works of author John Michael Greer @ Ecosophia such as the Long descent, After Progress, Wealth of Nature, The Echotechnic Future, Green Wizardry. Also Dmitry Orlov has some inspiring work as well such as The Five Stages of Collapse, Reinventing Collapse and his newest work The Artic Fox Cometh.
My Goal with my writing is to build upon the idea that our civilization is collapsing, identify the key steps which caused other civilization to collapse, and from that help propagate the seeds of future eco-technic societies based on knowledge of nature-like technology.
โSociety grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.โ
โWhen's the best time to plant a tree? Twenty years ago, but the second best time is now.โ
While the situation looks dire for industrial civilization as a whole, we need to look back farther to older civilizations, to understand where we are in this process of collapse. Civilizations seed areas in pristine environments of forest, mountains and river valleys, and can leave desolation in their wake. Apex Predators are removed and break the ecological checks and balances on herbivores. As Forests and ecology are disturbed and mismanaged, grasslands grazed down to the root, the forest die back, exposing bare soil to torrential flooding and baking heat making it impossible for forest to re-establish itself. The atmospheric rivers of moisture driven inland by the forest, fail, leading to a wild seesaw of flooding and drought. The Red Sun rises as wildfires overtake these ecosystems under immense stress. Only the most hardy species of shrubs can survive within the confines of intermittent erosive flooding and scorching heat. The feedback loops of aridification and desertification take root, leading to both water and wind driven erosion causing wild dust and sand storms. Thus, the Red Sun lives on.
When trees are cut down, or killed by ecological disturbance, their canopy of shade is removed and root structure decays radically changing the microclimate.
Apex predators like Big Cats, Wolves and Bears are hunted down and driven away. This make herbivore foraging behavior greedy and allows humans to lead vast herds, grazing down shrubs and saplings to the root.
Erosion from rain and mudslides leads to soil loss leaving exposed hillsides and gullies where many species of plants have a harder time getting a foothold.
The lack of tree cover and high surface area plant cover, means less surface area for condensation, high rates of soil moisture loss through both erosive floods and less canopy cover.
Aridification, R selected species like grass and shrubs pushing the area into a new equilibrium, making it harder for the former k selected keystone forest trees to get any momentum.
Civilizations losing forest to grassland tend to overgraze with cattle and goats, leading to an acceleration of grassland to hardy scrubland desert.
All the ecological and physical factors of aridification drive the break down of the Biotic Pump which is the process where forest bring a feedback loop of moisture inland.
Reduction of rainfall brings periods of drought further accelerating loss of grassland, remnant forest, and expansion of scrubland desert.
Drought leads to crop failure, erosion by wind is possible and further accelerates feedback-loop.
Depending on topography, geography and geology, the area advances to its ecological equilibrium as a low diversity desert.
Famine leads to a Locust like explosion of refugees and migration destabilizing other nearby civilizations putting stress on their ecosystems and forest.
The dark age and loss of knowledge means ignorance starts this process all over again somewhere else
The main point I want to emphasize is that destruction of Forest and Large Predators is THE KEYSTONE step of the feedback loop that drives the collapse of civilizations. This is because these are KEYSTONE species in their environment. This is a simplification of course, more details ahead! Please follow for notifications to The Red Sun Rises!
This is a viscous loop that has defined much of human history and even pre-history. It defines the arc and falls of major civilizations and the struggles humans have been facing since their existence. However, what would you think if I told you this process is reversible? Reversing this process and the creation of a new hope, takes conviction and sacrifice. Tune in Next time for The Old Gods and the New.